Evaluating The "Hard Knocks" and 'Madden' "Curses" Through The Last Few Years!

Two of the NFL’s biggest pop culture exports are "Hard Knocks", the behind-the-scenes HBO docuseries from NFL Films, and Madden, the video game franchise that drops every year. Both are massive projects, and both have huge audiences and followings. Players spring towards the new Madden release for fresh modes, updated player ratings, and new, better gameplay and graphics. Viewers dive into their couches, eager to press play on the latest season of "Hard Knocks" in order to see what really goes on beyond the managers’ and coaches’ and players’ doors.

However, through the years, there has been much speculation by fans and non-fans alike that these 2 giant productions could carry negative karma moving into the upcoming season. The very best-performing star players from one year are usually voted on, and one (rarely two) player gets named to be the cover player on the latest Madden game. It’s been happening since 2001, when Eddie George was actually the first player on the cover of the game, when previously John Madden himself was featured.

Many seasons and many players since have achieved this seeming holy grail of sports, where they have been deemed the cover athlete; however, it’s long been rumored and speculated (for good reason) that there is in fact a curse going around that, once players are on the cover, they end up playing much worse the following year.

In efforts of getting to the bottom of this, we broke down the last five years, of before-season Hard Knocks productions as well as the last 5 Madden video game cover athletes.

2020

Madden 21: Lamar Jackson                       

"Hard Knocks": LA Rams and LA Chargers

Lamar Jackson, fresh off his MVP season in 2019, did have a slight dip in his performance, and stats; however, he still remained one of the best QBs in the league. On the "Hard Knocks" side, both the L.A. Rams and the L.A. Chargers improved as the Rams went from 9-7 in 2019 to 10-6 in 2020 and the Chargers went from 5-11 in 2019 to 7-9 in 2020.

2021

Madden 22: Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes

Hard Knocks": Dallas Cowboys

Tom Brady was overall basically the same as, if not better than, the previous year. He threw for 43 TDs versus 40, and his QB rating went from 102.2 to 102.1. Patrick Mahomes’s production slipped, but it was minimal if anything, so no curse was to be found from Madden. And definitely no negative effect from their "Hard Knocks" appearance as the Dallas Cowboys went from 6-10 to 12-5.

2022

Madden 23: John Madden

"Hard Knocks": Detroit Lions

No curse to evaluate on the game side, as this cover honored John Madden himself, who the game is named after. As for "Hard Knocks", the Detroit Lions went from 3-13-1 to 9-8, so, yet again, no curse in sight.

2023

Madden 24: Josh Allen

"Hard Knocks": New York Jets

Josh Allen went from incredible to slightly less incredible, although he still had a fantastic year. The Bills did lose in the Divisional Round to the Kansas City Chiefs, although, from a purely statistical lens,  Allen definitely did not experience the curse. And as for the New York Jets, in 2022, they had a record of 7-10, and following their second "Hard Knocks" appearance, their record in 2023 was 7-10. Although some current-day fans believe that the Jets are somewhat perpetually cursed, "Hard Knocks" didn’t harm their season.

2024

Madden 25: Christian McCaffrey

"Hard Knocks": Chicago Bears

And lastly, out of everyone on this list, Christian McCaffrey may be the only true example of a possible Madden Curse. He went from being the league leader in yards from scrimmage and rushing yards, both of which he led by a lot, to having an injury ridden season of only playing 4 games.  As for the Chicago Bears, not only did they do worse record wise going from 7-10 to 5-12, but they also fired their last head coach, Matt Eberflus, on November 29, 2024, which was the first time in franchise history that the Bears fired their head coach during the season.

So, in the end, the numbers don’t lie, but the drama and possibility of a curse looming over the NFL sure makes things exciting. Maybe the actual curse isn’t even about the stats, but about the dramatic storylines we love to spin around them. Because whether it’s a player getting the trophy of a lifetime in the form of the Madden cover or a team front and center on "Hard Knocks", we’ll keep watching, waiting, and wondering who’s next to “break the curse” (or accidentally prove it right)...